PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO /OR/ (POR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 GAAP EPS was $0.36, down from $0.67 in Q4 2023 as higher power costs and storm-related items weighed on results . Full-year 2024 GAAP EPS rose to $3.01 (non-GAAP $3.14) vs. $2.33 (non-GAAP $2.38) in 2023, reflecting robust industrial demand and improved power cost conditions through Q3 .
• Management initiated 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.13–$3.33 and reaffirmed long-term EPS and dividend growth of 5–7%, underpinned by weather-adjusted load growth of 2.5–3.5% and disciplined O&M actions ($795–$815m) .
• Industrial load (data centers and semiconductors) grew ~10–11% YoY; long-term customer usage growth expectations were raised from 2% to 3% through 2029, signaling durable demand tailwinds .
• Liquidity exited 2024 at $997m; equity needs remain ~$300m per year in 2025–2026 with up to $550m of debt issuance expected in 2025 to fund capex ($1,270m) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well
  • Strong full-year earnings and demand: “We delivered 4 quarters of strong financial results… weather-adjusted energy usage increased 3%… industrial growth of 11% year-over-year” .
  • Clean energy and storage execution: Clean energy reached 45% of the mix; battery capacity is set to exceed 500 MW, supported by tax credits lowering customer costs .
  • Raised long-term demand outlook: “We are increasing our long-term customer usage growth expectations from 2% up to 3%, weather-adjusted through 2029” .
• What Went Wrong
  • Q4 pressure vs. prior year: GAAP EPS fell to $0.36 vs. $0.67 in Q4 2023 due to less favorable market conditions in Q4 and storm-related effects .
  • Structural lag and rate case outcome: Management noted ~70 bps structural lag in 2024 and a “less than strived for” 2025 rate review outcome requiring cost realignment .
  • RFP setback: A 250 MW PPA withdrew from commercial negotiations; BTAs expected to finalize in 2H25, pushing build timelines to 2027 .

Financial Results

• Quarterly EPS performance (oldest → newest)

• Annual results YoY

• Demand and deliveries

• Energy mix (FY)

Note: Wall Street consensus revenue/EPS estimates from S&P Global were unavailable due to data limits; comparisons versus estimates cannot be provided at this time.

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Strategic focus: “We delivered 4 quarters of strong financial results… weather-adjusted energy usage increased 3%… industrial growth of 11% year-over-year” (Maria Pope) .
• Technology deployment: “Driving productivity with new AI-powered tools to streamline operations, improve load forecasting and predictive maintenance… satellite imaging for vegetation management… dynamic line ratings” (Maria Pope) .
• Regulatory stance: “Outcome was not unexpected… less than what we had strived for… we remain laser-focused on affordability and committed to powering the region’s growth” (Maria Pope) .
• Financing plan: “Equity needs… ~$300 million per year in 2025 and 2026… debt issuances throughout 2025 of up to $550 million” (Joseph Trpik) .

Q&A Highlights

• Wildfire framework: Company pursuing a backstop fund plus liability limitations; efforts complementary across state and federal levels; bills expected to be submitted within two weeks of the call; session ends in June (Maria Pope) .
• Structural lag: ~70 bps gap between earned and allowed in 2024; plan to compress via cost management (Joseph Trpik) .
• Seaside battery recovery: Evaluating expedited tracker; 2025 plan assumes zero recovery to avoid optimism until clarified (Joseph Trpik) .
• Holdco timing: Considering action in 2025 to improve financing flexibility; “measuring months” (Joseph Trpik) .
• Rate base growth: Updated trajectory 7–9% (vs. prior 8–10%) given regulatory mechanics (ITCs treatment), with additions mainly in transmission (Maria Pope; Joseph Trpik) .
• Common equity ratio: Methodical improvement expected through 2027 (Joseph Trpik) .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 and FY 2024 were unavailable due to data-access limits. As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus Street expectations at this time.
• Given management’s 2025 O&M ($795–$815m) and power cost outlook, consensus models may need to reflect lower near-term margin expansion and potential upside later as RFP execution and cost programs progress .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Demand tailwinds: Semiconductors and data centers drove double-digit industrial growth; long-term demand raised to 3% through 2029—supports sustained rate base investment, especially in transmission .
• Near-term earnings cadence: After a soft Q4, 2025 EPS guide ($3.13–$3.33) embeds conservative assumptions (zero Seaside tracker recovery, higher O&M scrutiny) with room for upside if regulatory mechanisms align .
• Financing/Liquidity: $997m liquidity and clear equity/debt road map (~$300m equity in ’25–’26; up to $550m debt in 2025) reduce funding risk amid elevated capex ($1.27B) .
• Policy catalysts: Progress on wildfire legislation (state backstop fund, liability limits) and potential holdco action in 2025 could improve risk profile and financing flexibility—monitor legislative timeline into June .
• Resource pacing: One RFP project withdrew; BTAs targeted 2H25 with in-service by 2027—timeline consistency is key to load-growth alignment and cost control .
• Clean energy economics: Battery and wind tax credits are lowering costs; >500 MW battery fleet enhances integration and price stability—benefits to power costs and reliability likely compound over time .
• Trading lens: Without Street estimates, focus shifts to narrative—cost realignment execution, legislative outcomes, and RFP finalizations are the near-term stock movers; medium term hinges on transmission expansion and industrial demand durability .

KPIs and Balance Sheet/Financing Snapshot

Citations: Q4 2024 earnings press release and 8-K ; earnings call transcript ; Q3 2024 8-K ; Q2 2024 8-K ; energy mix tables ; dividend press release .